Currency Market Preview –  June 26 to July 2

Friendly Day Users;
The week ahead in Australia is notable for the lack of data due for release and the ticking over of another financial year end. The AUD has opened the week at 0.7563  USD and 0.6754 EUR whilst dipping below 1.0400 against the NZD. Despite the absence of data, the visit to Australia this week by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank chief John Williams should provide interesting insight into the plight of the US economy. The timing of this visit is notable following the US FOMC decision to raise interest rates at its most recent meeting despite the underlying weekness in inflation in the US.
Othe US FOMC members will also be taking to the airwaves on various international stages this week as well as Fed Chair Yellen who also scheduled to address a meeting in London. We are likely to hear from the FOMC and Fed members this week that recent softness in inflation data is of little concern to the pace and path of interest rate rises in the US. A notable speaker from the FOMC this week will be Neel Kashkari who has been a dissenting voice on recent interest rate decisions and he may be the one to stray from the official songsheet. Comments regarding US inflation will be drawn into sharper focus on Friday with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index.
Data in New Zealand this week includes Trade Balance; Business Confidence and Building Consents measures. The continued strength for the NZD particularly against the AUD  is of some concern to the nations exporters. Last week’s GlobalDairyTrade Auction showed the first price decline since the start of March. We can also expect the looming national election will soon start to dominate the news and economic debate in New Zealand.
It is now a year since the tumultuous United Kingdom Brexit vote with negotiations and posturing continuing. We can expect numerous jabs and digs  from both sides of the Channel as the nature of the divorce settlement specifics continues to develop.  Posturing from both the UK and EU will likely continue until the end of negotiations as the settlement is hammered out. Both Bank of England Governor Carney and ECB President Draghi are scheduled to speak across the week alongside a raft of UK and European data releases.
Chinese data is limited as we head to the end of the month with important mnaufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI results the only release of note. Chinese Prseident Xi will also be visiting Hong Kong this week to mark the 20th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong from the UK to China. Japanese data this week includes retail sales, housing starts, unemployment as well as household spending and inflation. Bank Of Japan Governor Kuroda is also due to speak on Wednesday following the release earlier in the week of the BOJ Summary of Opinions from its recent meeting.
Regards All.

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