US dollar tanks on election jitters

The EURUSD surged to 1.1075 on the back of a sharp sell-off in the US dollar. Strengthening trend and momentum indicators could encourage a further rise to 1.1115/1.1130 area (50/ 100-day moving averages) before 1.1200 (200-day moving average). Intra-day supports are eyed at 1.1021 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 2nd rise), 1.0988 (major 38.2% retrace) and 1.0962 (Fib 50% level & 100-hour moving average).

The aggressive sell-off in the US dollar sent the USDJPY into the oversold market on hourly basis. A break below the critical 103.44 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 28th rise) should suggest a short-term bearish reversal and could encourage a further sell-off to 102.80 (Fib 50% level) before 102.16 (major 61.8% retrace). A minor resistance is eyed at 104.23 (minor 23.6% retrace) and solid offers are presumed at 105.00/105.65 (200-day moving average), as the yen is expected to benefit from decent safe heaven inflows pre-US election.

The GBPUSD consolidates gains on the back of a softer US dollar. Heading into the US election, the rising stress in the US dollar could reveal the upside potential of the pound against the US dollar. The key resistances could be challenged at 1.2295 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash) and 1.2330 (weekly resistance). The short-term support is seen at 1.2210/1.2200 (area including the major 38.2% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 1st rise, 100, and 200-hour moving averages) and 1.2180 (Fib 50% level).

The Aussie has been one of rare G10 pairs losing against the US dollar in Asian trading session. The failure to clear the 0.7700-resistance triggered another round of profit-taking in AUDUSD, as the risk appetite deteriorated on US election jitters. Intra-day supports are seen at 0.7616/0.7614 (major 38.2% retracement on Oct 26th to Oct 28th decline / 100-hour moving average) and 0.7593 (minor 23.6% retrace). Any upside attempt should bump into a solid resistance pre-0.7700 and 0.7710/0.7730, mid-term resistance.

Gold rallied to $1293 on the back of a rising risk aversion pre-US election. The 200-day moving average, $1280, is expected to lend support to the safe heaven inflows. On the upside, the $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace on Dec’15 to Jul’16 rise) could be targeted before $1317 (100-day moving average).

The WTI extended losses to $46.22, as the OPEC’s long-term plans to manage production failed to convince the market. The bias remains on the downside, with short-term resistances seen at $47.70 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Oct 31st fall) and $48.56 (major 38.2% retrace).


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