BEARISH GBP SENTIMENT INCREASED AHEAD OF BOE.
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday August 2 & were released Friday August 5.
• CFTC data for the week through August 2nd showed speculative accounts remained bearish on the GBP ahead of Thursday’s BoE policy meeting. Net GBP shorts reached a new record, for a second week running, to total USD6.9bn, up nearly USD 300mn (or around 82.5k contracts, up 2k contracts) from last week’s levels.
• Elsewhere, investors renewed their bullishness on the JPY after allowing positioning to erode somewhat over the past month. Speculative accounts added just under USD1 bn in net long JPY exposure this week, taking the net JPY position (USD 5.1bn) back very close to the average of the past three months as investors registered disappointment with recent policy developments. The EUR saw modest net short covering, helping trim the overall bull bet on the USD implied by aggregate positioning in the major currencies. Net EUR shorts dropped by just under USD 900mn to USD 14.6bn.
• Investors turned less constructive on the CAD after persisting with a bullish view even as the CAD had tracked a softer profile in recent weeks. Net CAD longs fell by just over USD 400mn (around 5.4k contracts). We think this trend is likely to extend after today’s poor run of Canadian data. Net AUD and net NZD positioning was all but unchanged on the week. Net CHF positioning flipped from long to short but sentiment appears broadly neutral. Investors boosted net MXN shorts modestly. Overall positioning remains close to the levels prevailing over the past three months and is only modestly more bearish than the 1-year average, however